In this episode of the [A] Growth Ventures Podcast, Hamlet Azarian sits down with Tom Thompson, Chief Economist at Havas Edge – the world’s largest full-service performance marketing agency – and Entrepreneur in Residence at Harvard Alumni Entrepreneurs.
With a background spanning naval intelligence, game theory, the U.S. Department of Treasury, and 22 years of agency strategy, Tom has spent his career asking one question: why do consumers choose what they choose – and how can you influence that?
This conversation explores Tom’s journey from game theory grad school and Gulf War intelligence work to behavioral economics and performance marketing – and what all of it taught him about the psychology sitting between a lead and a conversion.
His central insight: conversion friction is almost never about information. It’s about the five cognitive biases quietly killing your funnel before the sales call even happens.
What We Discussed With Tom
1. From Submarines to Behavioral Economics: An Unlikely Origin Story
Tom walks through a career that began with a double major in political science and archaeology, pivoted through game theory and naval intelligence during two Gulf Wars, and eventually landed in advertising and economics – all driven by the same obsession: why do people make the choices they make?
2. The Five Cognitive Biases That Kill Lead Conversion
Tom breaks down the five psychological friction points that derail leads before they ever reach the sales team: effort aversion, loss aversion, regret aversion, uncertainty, and the renewal illusion. Each one is a real, measurable reason consumers hesitate – and each one can be addressed strategically.
3. The Value Equation Every Marketer Needs to Know
Economic Value to Customer = Reference Value + Differentiation Value − Switching Costs. Tom unpacks this formula with real examples and explains why the gap between what you think your product is worth and what a consumer is actually willing to pay is where most deals quietly die.
4. Why Most Brands Are Missing the Middle
Tom introduces the E-shaped economy – three behavioral tiers of consumers – and makes the case that the massive, cautious middle segment is being ignored by brands optimizing for immediate response. The middle doesn’t say no. They say not yet – and marketers need to stretch their attribution windows accordingly.
5. Active vs. Passive Seekers: The Most Underused Concept in Marketing
90% of your market isn’t actively looking to buy – but that doesn’t mean they won’t. Tom explains how building trust with passive seekers transforms your conversion math, because when they finally go active, they’re not shopping anymore. They’re just following through on a relationship you already built.
6. Where AI Is Actually Headed (From a Behavioral Economist’s POV)
Tom’s take on AI isn’t about models or tools – it’s about trust. Consumers won’t adopt AI because it’s powerful. They’ll adopt it through brands they already trust. And that changes everything about how companies should be thinking about their AI strategy.
7. The Biggest Gap Between Founders and Customer Acquisition
Too many founders are convinced the better mousetrap sells itself. Tom explains why obsessing over product while ignoring the psychology of how consumers evaluate value is the most common and most expensive mistake in early-stage growth.
Key Takeaways
- 05:00 – How game theory in naval intelligence shaped a career in consumer behavior
- 12:00 – Why people like innovation but hate change – and what that means for your product framing
- 18:00 – The five cognitive biases killing lead conversion and how to address each one
- 27:00 – The home remodeling funnel: how to sequence emotional hooks and bias-busting messaging
- 35:00 – The value equation: reference value, differentiation value, and switching costs explained
- 43:00 – The E-shaped economy and the cautious middle consumer brands are ignoring
- 50:00 – Speed to lead vs. speed to trust – why the attribution window needs to stretch
- 55:00 – Active vs. passive seekers: why 90% of your market is available but invisible
- 62:00 – AI adoption will be driven by brand trust, not by capability
- 68:00 – The mousetrap fallacy: what founders consistently get wrong about customer acquisition
Final Takeaway
Tom Thompson’s framework is a masterclass in what performance marketing is actually missing – not better tools or tighter targeting, but a genuine understanding of how consumers think, hesitate, and ultimately decide.
Whether you’re a founder, a performance marketer, or an operator trying to fix a broken conversion funnel, this episode reframes the entire problem. The leads aren’t the issue. The psychology is.
Connect with Tom Thompson
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